[SMM Nickel Analysis] Spot MHP Supply Tightens, Q1 2026 MHP Cobalt Offers Rise Further: What Lies Ahead?

Affected by the export quota policy for cobalt intermediate products in the DRC, the supplementary role of MHP as an alternative raw material for cobalt intermediates has become prominent, leading to a further increase in the cobalt discount coefficient in the MHP market.

In the current MHP spot market,in terms of offers,Seller A quoted a nickel discount coefficient of 90M and a cobalt discount coefficient of 90;in terms of transactions,recent transaction prices included Buyer B with a nickel discount coefficient of 90M and a cobalt discount coefficient of 86; Buyer C with a nickel discount coefficient of 88M+3 and a cobalt discount coefficient of 82. There were also some forward transaction orders. Spot market liquidity was limited, sellers refused to budge on prices, and most buyers adopted a wait-and-see attitude, paying close attention to the transaction coefficients.

Regarding recent MHP offers for Q1 2026, Seller D has provided a quote with a nickel discount coefficient of 90M and a cobalt discount coefficient of 100. According to SMM estimates, China's cobalt raw material supply is expected to remain tight in Q1 2026, and cobalt salt plants' acceptance of the MHP cobalt coefficient will further increase to maintain production. SMM expects the market to continue its game in the short term.

SMM will continue to monitor the latest nickel and cobalt discount coefficients in the MHP market.